The U.S. over-supply of oil is ending.

by Art Berman, Forbs

Comparative inventory (C.I.) has been dramatically reduced in 2017. Levels have fallen 159 mmb since February and are now approaching the 5-year average for the first time in nearly 3 years (Figure 1)

An interpreted yield curve that correlates C.I. and WTI price is developed by cross plotting the same data without the time dimension (Figure 2). The yield curve may provide price solutions to inventory reduction assumptions in the near term.

Accordingly, if C.I. continues to fall at the 9-month average of 4 mmb/week, oil prices may be approximately $67 per barrel by the end of December. If C.I. falls at the 8 mmb/week average since late September, WTI could approach levels not seen since before the price collapse in late 2014.

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