The same analyst that predicted a fall from $100 oil to $25 in 2015 (and he nailed it) is now predicting $100 oil, possibly as soon as year-end 2018.   Are the chickens coming home to roost? The math says yes.  Increasing demand + capital reductions (not to mention Aramco IPO scheduled for late 2018 see “The King Sets His Own Ransom”) point to much higher oil prices in 2018.

The oil market has a problem — and it’s not a global glut. Rather, it’s that supply won’t meet rising demand in the long run, unless crude prices jump back to $100 a barrel.

That’s the message from one of the world’s best-known oil traders, Pierre Andurand, who in September 2015, forecast crude would slump to between $25 and $30 — five months before prices dipped to around $26. But now the trader, who runs a big hedge fund specializing in the black gold, called Andurand Capital, is striking a remarkably upbeat tone on the commodity. (See "Oil Bear Bets on Return to $25 a Barrel")

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Demand growth has rarely been this strong, global oil reserves peaked 30 years ago, new oil discoveries are at all-time lows, and we think non-OPEC, ex-U.S., production is doomed at current prices,” he said at the Sohn Conference in London last week.

“So [production] is pretty much in terminal decline, and the question that everyone really wants to get an answer to is: Can U.S. shale really fill the gap? Another question is: Are current geopolitical risks priced in?” he said.

The answer to both questions is “no,” according to Andurand. (by Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch)


 Also see
The King Sets His Own Ransom
Saudi Aramco first announced the possibility of going public earlier this year when oil prices were plummeting. As a guest on Fox Business News' Varney & Company, last February I was asked my thoughts.  I said then that it made no sense for Saudi Aramco to announce an IPO at $30 oil and that "It ain't happening now."  Who drives down oil prices just to sell in to a depressed market?  NOBODY!